The Senate race in Utah is one of the most undercovered and most interesting this cycle. It’s got a little something for almost everyone. Die-hard Republicans will appreciate incumbent Mike Lee’s defiance as he lays the groundwork for what I’d argue is the first truly pro-Trump campaign in the state. Moderate Democrats will concede the strategy the party embraced lit up their hopes in an otherwise red state. And political scientists will love the experiment in electoral and voting strategy that we’ll all get to witness. The only people who won’t be particularly happy? All the other Democrats; here’s why… 

At the Utah Democratic Party’s convention in April, the party opted to – for the first time ever – not nominate a candidate, and instead endorse the bid of independent Evan McMullin. This is monumental, but considering Democrats haven’t won a Senate race there since 1970 or a presidential race there in almost 60 years, what other choice did they have? Well, if you’re an insistent Democrat, you could continue nominating candidates knowing full well that they’ll lose (in the way Republicans constantly nominate nobodies to run for Senate in Delaware and Washington). But that would be dumb and, more importantly, boring! Despite the kvetching of the actual Democrat who was the frontrunner for the Democratic endorsement and nomination, the reality for Democrats was always going to be bleak in the Beehive State, and this will at least make the race competitive.

So let’s talk about McMullin (for our Trump-supporting readers out there, you may know him as “McMuffin”). A former CIA officer, native Utahn, and Mormon, McMullin first made waves in 2016 by running for president as a former Republican turned independent. As farcical and dangerous as an inexperienced presidential candidate would seem (other than the one at the top of the Republican ticket that year, of course…), McMullin nevertheless proved a cathartic channel for Democrats who were high on the schadenfreude of the Republican Party annihilating itself and also an acceptable outlet for a lot of “Never Trump” Republicans who could not in good faith support their party’s nominee that November. While McMullin only received about half a percent of the vote nationally (and was only on the ballot in 11 states), he received almost 22% in Utah – denying Trump an outright majority in the state, though he did win the plurality and therefore its electoral votes.

After the 2016 election, McMullin continued to poke the new Republican leader, penning op-eds left and right and keeping the flame of the center-right alive in an increasingly shrunken corner of American politics. He would, as would practically every other anti-Trump Republican, come to endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. And, in 2021, he became a vocal advocate for the formation of a center-right third party. By the end of the year, however, McMullin had a different idea: he’d run as an independent against Utah’s incumbent (and Trump-friendly) Republican Senator Mike Lee. In an op-ed in Deseret, he discussed his faith, his family’s escape from religious persecution, compassionate conservatism, and the “extremes” that “dominate our politics and seek to weaponize government power against fellow Americans.” Critically, he emphasized Utah, and what makes Utah unique – and why he feels Utah was unrepresented by the strife between the two major parties. It was an appeal that had the political convenience of being both accurate and tuned to the people of his home state, offering a compelling and achievable way out of the Trumpism now ingrained in the conservative movement that many – if not most – Utahns were uncomfortable with, without having to stomach voting for a true Democrat.

This solution also demonstrated the weaknesses of Lee in the state, in particular the miscalculation in his capitulation to Trump. While Utahns, particularly Mormons, soured on the president, Lee compared him to Captain Moroni, a figure in the Book of Mormon who inspired people to fight for liberty against an anti-church government. This upset many Latter-day Saints who felt it was blasphemous and exploitative (though, there is something to be said about Maroni’s line “I seek not for power, but to pull it down” and Trump’s institution-wrecking campaign). And Lee continued, even after Trump lost the election. As January 6 of 2021 approached, Lee was a key ally in the president’s quest to stay in power. Now, running for a third term, Lee who boasts Trump’s endorsement, was unable to score his fellow Republican senator’s endorsement (though Mitt Romney declined to endorse McMullin as well, but this is definitely a worse look for Lee as an incumbent than for McMullin, who Romney also considers a “friend”), and appears set to continue on his pro-Trump path in his state dominated by a Trump-weary electorate. This is what gives McMullin his opening.

If McMullin can swing the full vote of the state’s Democrats which make up roughly 30% (give or take 5% depending on the year) of the votes cast in Utah’s elections; and enough anti-Trump Republicans and independents, he really could pull this off. It would breathe new life into the center-right in America, quiet down the activist left’s insistence that progressivism is the way to defeat Trumpism, and perhaps even open the door for a more coalition-driven Senate. McMullin faces steep odds – he has yet to lead in a poll – but Democrats may be licking their wounds and are still coming around to the electoral calculus. But it is clear that Lee isn’t safe either and the focus on this race will draw Republican attention away from others. 

Our last question for this race that remains unanswered is what would happen if McMullin actually won? Would he caucus with the Democrats? Could he caucus with the Republicans and become their version of Joe Manchin, torpedoing their more ambitious policies? Or would he try to convince senators like Manchin or Romney to join his own third party? Though he has said he will not caucus with either party, for the sake of our national forecast’s projection of final seat allocation and Senate control by party, we will count McMullin against Republicans’ chances at a majority simply because Republicans will have a harder chance of controlling the chamber without Senator Lee. We reserve the right to change this and list the prospects in a party of his own if the race intensifies and building a coalition for control of the Senate becomes necessary but for now it seems clear that McMullin’s candidacy hurts Republicans more than helps them.

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