Minnesota has become something of a white whale for the Republican Party in recent years. Despite having been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1976 (the longest Democratic winning streak in any state), the Land of 10,000 Lakes nearly went for Donald Trump in 2016, and its status as a rural midwestern state led some commentators to speculate that this firmest piece of the blue wall would fall to the GOP in 2020. But it didn’t come particularly close; in fact, Biden nearly replicated Barack Obama’s 2012 performance, and while Senator Tina Smith failed to win a majority of the vote in her reelection bid, she still defeated Republican challenger Jason Lewis by over five points. The Democratic winning streak continued into 2022, with Governor Tim Walz cruising to reelection comfortably and Democrats gaining full control of the state legislature for the first time since 2012, allowing the party to pass a bold legislative agenda in 2023, one that proved so successful that Kamala Harris tapped Walz as her running mate.

So, given Minnesota Democrats’ (or, should I say, the DFL’s) recent string of wins, why pay this much attention to the state? Part of what buoyed Biden to a relatively comfortable win in 2020 were the ridiculous margins he put up in the Twin Cities, winning over 70% of the vote in both Ramsey (St. Paul) and Hennepin (Minneapolis) counties, a level of success unheard of since Theordore Roosevelt’s 1904 reelection campaign. Harris should still win both of those counties in 2024, but there have been some signs that she won’t be quite as dominant as Biden was four years ago. Minnesota played host to Biden’s fourth worst primary performance this year, thanks in large part to the “uncommitted” protest vote that received well over 20% in Ramsey and Hennepin counties, likely a consequence of the region’s large Somali population. If the War in Gaza remains a sticking point for progressive and Muslim voters in the general election, reduced margins in the Twin Cities combined with a rightward turn from Minnesota’s rural voters (a demographic that Biden actually did better with in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016) could create a domino effect that leads to Trump winning the state. 

So too could Minnesota voters’ willingness to flirt with third parties. Third party candidates accounted for nearly 9% of Minnesota’s presidential vote in 2016 (the third largest in the country, after Alaska and New Mexico), and Tina Smith failed to win a majority in 2020 thanks to Kevin O’Connor of the Legal Marijuana Now Party, who won nearly 6% of votes cast and who have a reputation for eating into Democratic margins at the state level (thanks to Governor Walz’s efforts, that party’s mission is now somewhat moot). It’s not likely that the voters casting “uncommitted” ballots in the Democratic primary will move to Trump in the general election – but they could choose to either stay home or vote for a progressive third party, winnowing Harris’ margin and providing Trump with a backdoor path to victory. Such a development would likely be presaged by a Harris collapse in other, much more competitive states, but it’s a distinct, if unlikely, possibility her campaign should at least keep an eye on as they try to hold onto the Midwest in 2024.

Back in 2021, we suggested that Minnesota may break its Democratic streak and finally go for the Republican candidate the next time a Republican wins the national popular vote. In 2024, with that possibility lingering, this seems eerily prescient. By selecting Walz as her running mate, Harris should receive a moderate boost in a state she already has the inherent advantage in, so long as she can stay above water nationally. In a cycle like this, that’s not a sure thing.