We’ve been waiting months for last month’s primaries in Nevada because we feel, and have been stressing for a while now, that Nevada is likely the most important state in the 2022 midterms. With the June 14 primaries now settled in the Silver State, we’re bringing you a series of to-the-point, insightful, expansive, and connected pieces on what you should know about the Nevada elections and why they matter so much this cycle.

Nevada Senate Race | Nevada Congressional Races | Nevada Governor’s Race | Nevada’s Executive Branch | The Nevada Republican Party | Nevada and the 21st Century Democratic Party

Since Nevada’s June 14 primary, we’ve spent a lot of time recapping the Silver State’s major races this cycle, modern political history, and making the case for why one race in particular may be the most important election this year. But while the Nevada Senate race is the most pivotal election for either party this cycle, and Nevada’s future state officials may have an impact for years to come, the state in general has both symbolic and tangible importance for the prospects of the Democratic Party in the 21st century overall.

Nevada is important for several reasons that make it unique compared to other states, each of which set a foundation for those following:

1. Nevada remains, despite Democrats’ (and Republicans’) best efforts, a perennial swing state. As formerly Republican strongholds like Colorado and Virginia have flipped and formerly Democratic-leaning states like Michigan and Wisconsin have wavered, Nevada has not so much decided as stubbornly resisted opting for any party other than whichever suits the transient, centrist-libertarian ethos of the state. In the last decade, that’s led to victories for business-minded Democrats — but it remains unanswered whether mask mandates, more onerous labor regulation, and other pandemic-related restrictions will punish the party in the state. Therefore, and most critically, Nevada matters to the Democratic Party because they have no choice but to continue to make an effort there. It remains a must-win state in an era of increasingly close elections.
   
   

2. It looks like the Democratic Party, at least more than most states do. As the Democrats look to shake up their primary calendar, Nevada has stood out as a potential first-in-the-nation alternative to the disproportionately white Iowa and New Hampshire for a couple key reasons. One reason in particular is of newfound importance to the party: it’s a relatively small state that resembles the actual voters in the Democratic Party. As the third-most-diverse state in the country, a majority-minority state, and one that still boasts strong unions, Nevada is far better tailored to addressing what the actual Democratic base is looking for than Iowa (85% non-Hispanic white) or New Hampshire (90% non-Hispanic white).
   
   In 2020, the predominantly white Democratic primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire gave former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg first and then second place overall, despite the fact that he didn’t perform particularly well with the voters-of-color who make up a large share of the Democratic electorate. Once the Democratic primary moved away from the northernmost (and whiter) parts of the country, however, candidates with a stronger coalition like Bernie Sanders racked up more votes, and the candidate who was best able to attract a coalition of Black, working class, Latino, Asian, and other voters – Joe Biden – handily won the most states. Joe Biden got fourth place in Iowa, fifth place in New Hampshire, but then second in Nevada – a pretty damning record for Iowa considering this would be the first time since 1992 where the Democrat who won their caucuses did not end up as the eventual nominee.
   
   It’s important for Democratic presidential candidates to appeal to the party’s broad and diverse coalition, and that’s why it’s almost impossible to win the Democratic nomination without a significant backing from many of the corners of the party. That Nevada seems to do a good job of more accurately reflecting the party as a whole is critical to recognize as we make the case for why the state matters so much to what the Democratic Party will be in this century.
   
   
3. Nevada is a reliable proving ground for the Democratic agenda. An underappreciated feature of many geographically large and diverse Western states like California, Nevada, and Texas is the opportunities they offer to see where the party appeals and what can work. California is a classic example: far from being a massive state dominated by a few major metropolitan areas and the tech industry, there are also areas of massive agricultural industry, remote desert and mountainous regions, and areas of chronic poverty. There are environmental groups, massive mining and drilling operations, shipping services, and unique religious groups too. In many ways this allows California to serve as a loose proxy for policy and electioneering as Democrats and Republicans scramble to unite varying interests and determine the impacts of various pitches or policies.
   
   But California is massive, it’s expensive, and it’s pretty Democratic-leaning (though Republicans do win in many, many parts of the state, further emphasizing the point). Of the majority-minority states (California, Maryland, DC, New Mexico, Hawaii, Texas, and Nevada are the only seven states/districts in which this is the case), Nevada is by far the most competitive at a national and state level, as the rest are pretty reliably Democratic-voting with the exception of Texas (which leans Republican but is steadily shifting towards Democrats). But while geographically large (it is the seventh largest state) and diverse, Nevada remains relatively small from a population standpoint. Its two major metro areas (Las Vegas in the southern tip, and Reno in the western tip) are islands in a vast state of desert, natural preserves, military installations, farmland, mountains, rare metal mines, and more. This makes Nevada relatively affordable from a campaign perspective (it’s famously expensive and thus inaccessible to smaller candidacies to campaign in states with expensive media markets, which is why New York and New Jersey – despite looking more like the Democratic Party – aren’t often considered serious candidates for a first-in-the-nation primary) and useful in gathering data to apply to Democrats’ national efforts.
   
   In Nevada, when Democrats notice they have a problem discussing policing reforms in suburbs, or do unusually well in heavily unionized areas like the Strip while pitching more progressive healthcare policies, or that legalization of recreational marijuana outperformed Hillary Clinton in rural areas in 2016, they can better understand national trends and adapt their message accordingly. Whether you believe parties win elections to enact policy or enact policy to win elections, Nevada is an ample, affordable, and accessible proving ground for Democratic policies, candidates, and ideas because it boasts a wide range of voters, industries, and geographies that make it unique among swing states overall, enabling it to achieve both goals nationwide.
   
   
4. It remains both ahead of, and behind, the future Democratic electorate. In the points above, the case was made that Nevada is more diverse than the country overall and thus is an important presage for where the party goes – but the opposite is also true: it lags behind the Democratic Party in education. White, college-educated voters were critical for both Biden’s victory and for Democratic victories in the 2018 midterms. But Nevada actually lags pretty significantly behind the national average with only about 26% of those aged 25 or above holding a bachelor’s degree or higher (compared to about 33% for the nation as a whole); it’s not a particularly high-income state either.
   
   Among the states that went for Joe Biden in the 2020 election (including Nevada), the average portion of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 36.4%; among states that went for Trump it was 28.8%. Nevada’s rate of just under 26% not only makes it the least-educated state that voted for Biden, but also among the bottom of every state – only five states have fewer college graduates (and those five all went for Trump by well over double digits).
   
   The reason this matters is because it gives Democrats an opportunity to show that their base is broad enough to encompass and support many of the voters that they are primed to lose over the next few decades. Working class, non-college-educated, predominantly white and Latino voters are moving away from the Democratic Party in some areas, and Democrats need to demonstrate they can still appeal to these kinds of voters. And they have and can do so in Nevada. Nevada stands out in the sense that Democrats have compellingly (if often narrowly) done so in the last couple of elections. What is the party doing right in the Silver State that it is failing to do in other poorer, less-educated, and working class areas in the Midwest or the Deep South? If Nevada is an outlier, that tells the party it can’t do much but amplify what its been doing to appeal to Nevadans specifically – but if it is a harbinger, and Democrats start to lose the state or make traction in other states with similar demographics, then some sacrifices will have to be made and Democrats will need to focus on the new suburban, educated electorate it inherited from your father’s Republican Party.
   
   
5. Nevada is the state of the future. As Democratic-leaning states like California, New York, and Illinois suffer from lethargic population growth, it has become clear to the Democratic Party at the national level that putting resources into an array of high-growth, potential pickup states is not just wise electioneering, but necessary to build a sustainable governing majority. States like Texas, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and even Utah all hold a lot of potential for the party – but Nevada, having sat on the fence for the better part of three centuries now, with a diverse electorate, and an environment that makes it conducive to making a national play for every other state, has been consistently ahead of its time. It pointed to Democratic troubles with certain voters in 2016, proved stubbornly moderate in the 2018 midterms, and has been flashing increasing warning lights for the party since Trump improved on his 2016 margin in 2020 (one of just seven states for which this was the case, and with Florida it is one of only two of these seven in which the margin was under 10%).
   
   And though Nevada is certainly an electoral precursor, it also shows what the Democratic Party can do when it lives up to its potential. It is a premier example of what concentrated and consistent investment in a representative electorate, forward-thinking investment, and moderate governance can accomplish.
   
   After the 2018 midterms, Nevada became the first state in the country to have a majority female legislature. At the time, on average women only held around 25% of state legislative seats. After the 2020 election, this majority expanded, with 60% of legislative seats held by women (and about 29% in state legislatures nationally, on average). Though this includes some women from the Republican Party too, make no mistake that – in line with national trends – most of the women in the legislature are Democrats. Of the 63 combined members of the state senate and state house, 26 are Democratic women; ten are Republican women. This has meant issues like protection for pregnant workers, paid sick leave, abortion, sexual assault and sex trafficking – all of which disproportionately impact women – have emerged at the forefront of the state’s lawmaking. Concentrated energy on “grassroots candidate recruitment” and high levels of legislative turnover paid dividends in female representation in the state.
   
   This forward-thinking investment in candidates and political entrepreneurship has paid off dividends in long-run Democratic policies. As the state runs out of water, becomes warmer and warmer, and faces potential energy shortages in the 21st century, it has also made technocratic green energy investments and prioritized conservation. Thanks to the efforts of Nevada Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto,1Of note from the above paragraph, Nevada is also one of only four states right now for which both senators are women. The other three are Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Washington. All eight of these senators are Democrats. southern Nevada will receive hundreds of millions of dollars earmarked for water projects, with a laudable aim of improving water infrastructure, water reusability, and improving access to clean drinking water in the Colorado River watershed. On green energy, Nevada’s solar industry provides 15% of the total power needs of the state (second only to California’s 18% as of 2019). It also generates around 10% of its total energy from geothermal, a higher proportion than any other state. Investment in a larger and more modern energy grid, battery capacity, and other low-carbon energy sources have transformed the state into a national leader on a green energy transition.
   
   If prudent and long-term policymaking is to pay off this century, it will be thanks to sensible, moderate politicians from Nevada like those we’ve covered through this series: Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak, former Republican Governor Brian Sandoval, Senator Cortez Masto, Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus, and more. They all eschewed higher national ambitions and extreme partisanship in favor of securing lasting legislative successes. And that may be because it is deeply rooted in Nevada’s history to find a way to survive in inhospitable environments and buckle down and keep to what has to be done, regardless of federal politics. That the Nevada Democratic Party has decided to continue forward in this tradition while its Republican Party preoccupies itself with rancorous national partisanship puts the Silver State at a great inflection point of American politics. The main question left this century is which way it decides to go.