After all the ink we spilled writing about Nevada’s Senate race back in 2022, our 2024 effort is a bit more mild. Whereas Nevada was the closest and most important Senate race two years ago, in 2024 it’s probably neither: if Democrats can’t hang on to a Senate seat in Nevada – a state they’ve won at the presidential level since 2008 – there’s no way in hell they can protect their incumbents in Ohio or Montana, let alone knock out a Republican incumbent in Florida or Texas!

One term incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen won her seat by 5% in 2018, unseating Republican Dean Heller. Notably, Heller was the only Republican incumbent to go down that year, but the reason why makes Rosen’s triumph a little less rosy – Heller was also the only Republican up that year in a state won by Hillary Clinton just two years prior, and 2018 was shaping up to be a Democratic wave year of major proportions. Pull back the curtain a little and we’d note that the overall national popular vote margin in the 2018 cycle was about D+8.6%, which tells us that Nevada was still roughly 3 points to the right of the nation. Sure, Heller likely had an incumbency advantage, given it tends to be larger in smaller states like Nevada – and Rosen will similarly benefit this year – but either way, in a year where the national environment is anything but overwhelmingly Democratic, Nevada may be in play.

Our recent presidential write up went into excruciating detail about why Nevada has clearly gotten redder and why, all other things equal, a generic Republican is probably favored there to a generic Democrat. Of note:

1. Some trendline reversion, as Nevada notably U-turned from its Democratic high water mark in 2008, and has consistently become about 2.44% more Republican every four years.
2. It may be one of the fastest growing states in the 21st century, but most of the inflow has occurred in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and about three-quarters of the state’s population. This is a relatively moderate, if very diverse, urban area. There’s not a lot of conclusive evidence that the large share of new Nevadans are necessarily disgruntled Republicans leaving deep blue, high tax California for neighboring Nevada. But about 43% of all new Nevadans over the last few years came from California, and there’s some thought these transplants may skew Republican. 
3. Regardless of migration patterns, it is notable that though Nevada does not currently have open primaries, Democrats have hemorrhaged in terms of voter registration and registered independents have shot up dramatically. Whether it’s new voters, new Nevadans who are unaccustomed to a closed primary system, or outright frustration and apathy regarding politics, it’s hard to read it as anything other than bad news for Democrats. 
4. Economic concerns, cost of living increases, and high gas prices – all things which certainly harm the incumbent party – are pretty clearly hammering Nevadans harder than most other Americans. Additionally, Nevada and its tourism and service-oriented economy was hit – and suffered much longer – from the COVID-19 pandemic than most states.

There are some things which push back – or attempt to reverse – the apparent Democratic bleeding, which we’ll get into in a moment. But the trendline is clear, and Rosen’s challenger, Republican Sam Brown, is uniquely well primed to seize on what seems to be a now-Republican inclined state. A businessman who previously ran for the Senate in 2022 (he did not win the Republican primary), Brown suffered notable injuries in while deployed with the Army in Afghanistan as a result of an IED and ended up meeting the woman who would become his wife, who served as an Army dietician and assisted in his care. A heartwarming story, and one that emphasizes Brown’s relative candidate quality compared to many other swing state Republican Senate nominees of late. But, all things considered, he’s polling… kind of poorly.

Even granting Rosen a sizable incumbency advantage (and there’s an argument to be made that given the state’s transient population, she shouldn’t get a big bump!) doesn’t make up the difference, so what’s going on? Well, for one, the race probably will tighten a bit as we drudge towards Election Day. For another matter, polls in Nevada are notoriously dodgy – it’s a difficult state to poll – so some instinctual caution that polls may be oversampling higher educated, suburban, Democratic-leaning voters is warranted (a recent Emerson poll, for example, has 34% of responses from voters with a college degree – a meaningfully higher share than the state actually has).

Beyond those psephological asides, Rosen is a consummate politician. She eschews national politics in favor of the local, notably avoiding the DNC this year to talk about health care issues, meet with local labor organizations, and dialogue with the Latino community instead. She’s spent substantial effort connecting with local leaders across the state and approaching her job with an eye on delivering for Nevada, rather than partisanship. This has carried through to her campaign, where she’s done outreach to remote towns beyond the vote heavy Reno and Vegas. Though she – like most Nevadans (it is the state with the lowest share of native borns) – is not originally from the Silver State, Rosen is about as Nevadan as they come: she first moved there over 40 years ago, worked for a Howard Hughes-affiliated company, worked as a waitress at Caesars Palace, and eventually ran for a south Vegas area House seat in 2016, defeating perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (something of a rite of passage for Nevada Democrats; Tarkanian has run unsuccessfully… a lot). She has demonstrated an ability to speak with authority and exuberance about the state in a way that Catherine Cortez Masto – the state’s senior Democratic senator and who herself eked out a reelection win just two years ago – often struggled to. It’s paid off for Rosen, who boasts endorsements not merely from your typical stalwart left-of-center groups like EMILY’s List/Planned Parenthood/Giffords, but also some groups who have been shakier for Democrats of late like police organizations, local Teamsters, and Latino organizations. 

A peek at polls from the 2022 race and 2024 is maybe a bit more revealing: Adam Laxalt, the Republican Senate nominee against Cortez Masto two years ago, was regularly polling in the mid-to-high 40s against her. This year, though Rosen may be polling a bit better than Cortez Masto (closer to the 50 mark), it’s more that Brown is polling closer to 40%. A lack of name recognition might be responsible (the “Laxalt” name was more familiar in Nevada), which supports the case for consolidation of voters and the race tightening in this final stretch. Some unpopular, unclear, or fluid policy positions may be another – Brown first supported the unpopular Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository project (something of a political third rail in Nevada), then reversed course this year. He’s also something of a carpetbagger, though consider us skeptics for the amount of impact this will have. Yes, Brown first gained political notoriety for running in the Republican primary for a Texas House seat back in 2014 and only moved to Nevada six years ago, but the transiency of Nevadans probably makes this less of an issue – a lot of people are brand new Nevadans! 

As for campaign finance, Rosen has also raised, outspent, and kept cash-on-hand by at least a 3-to-1 margin over Brown. Given that Cortez Masto had a similar, overwhelming cash and spending advantage in her race just two years ago, there’s some legitimate doubt this will have a substantial effect. Instead, it seems Rosen may be getting a boost from the kinds of issues that have propelled Democratic success of late: abortion, organizing, and “normalness.” A measure on the ballot in the state takes the first step to amend the state constitution to enshrine the right to an abortion until fetal viability. Though there is good reason to think that abortion ballot measures like this may not necessarily juice Democratic turnout, Nevada may be different –  its proclivity for libertarian policies like bodily autonomy seems to be genuine, as it remains one of the most pro-choice states in the country. For what it’s worth, Brown has sort of moderated (or flip flopped) on the issue, and his wife publicly revealed her own abortion story earlier this year. Federal investment and Rosen’s ability to deliver meaningful and tangible results to the Silver State also gives her something to point to as to why she merits reelection. And, after rebounding from the death of its namesake, the so-called “Reid Machine” is back, providing resources and know-how for Democratic organizing efforts in the state – something that could make a difference on the margin, an apparatus miles ahead of Republican organizing there. 

To paraphrase one of the state’s more prominent Democratic strategists, Molly Forgey, Nevada Democrats enter and run every race as if they were already behind. The Rosen campaign has palpably adopted this hustle mindset, and the state’s Democratic campaign apparatus is roaring to life to support her. This all can only get Rosen so far if the state has shifted consistently rightward, but, at least for the time being, it appears to be working.