So much for “as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.” Once the definitive bellwether, Ohio has become reliably Republican in the Trump era, casting its electoral votes for the losing presidential candidate in 2020 for the first time in 60 years. The reasons for Democratic collapse in Ohio mirror broader shifts nationwide – the Buckeye State ranks in the bottom third of the nation when it comes to college education, and once solidly Democratic union counties like Mahoning and Trumbull swung hard to the right thanks to Donald Trump’s populist rhetoric and protectionist trade policies. Democratic losses at the presidential level have been mirrored at the state level as well – all but one of Ohio’s non-judicial statewide elected officials is a Republican; even former Congressman Tim Ryan’s aggressively anti-China platform couldn’t stop him from losing 2022’s Senate race to far-right venture capital bro and now-Trump running mate JD Vance by around six points. 

While the outlook is bleak for Democrats in Ohio, they’ve demonstrated a degree of resiliency in recent midterm elections. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown – who melds social progressivism with anti-free trade policies – held onto his seat in 2018, even though he underperformed his projected vote share. House Democrats put up a relatively good showing in 2022 as well, winning two Republican leaning House districts even as Vance and Governor Mike DeWine scored comfortable victories at the top of the ballot. But as any political scientist will tell you, results at the bottom of the ballot can often be a lagging indicator – even Alabama and Mississippi regularly elected Democrats at the congressional and local levels long after they became solidly Republican states during presidential years.

Though some factors (like a larger Ukrainian American population) may benefit Harris, if the vice president is going to pull an upset in Ohio in 2024, it will probably be thanks to some (dubious) reverse coattail riding of Brown, who’s led in some early polls against his potential Republican challengers in his reelection bid. Of course, that’s still a big if – facing a close election nationwide, Harris and the Democrats are more likely to prioritize Ohio’s Midwestern neighbors like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which whose (relatively) more educated and diverse populations provide her with an easier path to victory than Ohio’s much whiter and more working class electorate. And the choice of JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, though it may only minutely boost the ticket in the state, will counter potential Democratic gains. Once a bellwether, Ohio has instead become a microcosm of the realignment the country has undergone since 2016, providing Republicans with a blueprint that they’ll hope to replicate nationwide for decades to come.