The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and the Senate in our model. Yet, some things – like races in Michigan, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania – seem to have shifted towards Democrats for reasons worth incorporating into our model.

With just a week until Election Day, we have some more factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model. Some of them reflect new information, others are minor corrections, and some add a little fun to the model. By and large, they will not have a significant impact on the bottom line, but do help provide some more detail and explain some recent shifts in the polls.

Feel free to send us any suggestions, thoughts, or note any errors; you can reach us at contact@thepostrider.com. Here’s what we’ve adjusted and added this week:

Connecticut

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Puerto Ricans”) to reflect that 8% of the state’s population is of Puerto Rican ancestry, a group of voters who may negatively recall Trump’s frosty relationship and hostile attitude towards the commonwealth. This is likely further escalated by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally which secured headlines for containing racist rhetoric at the expense of Puerto Ricans, so we expect the group to increase turnout towards Democrats.

Florida

Both President and Senate: 

  • We’ve added a factor (“Puerto Ricans”) to reflect that 5% of the state’s population is of Puerto Rican ancestry, a group of voters who may negatively recall Trump’s frosty relationship and hostile attitude towards the commonwealth. This is likely further escalated by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally which secured headlines for containing racist rhetoric at the expense of Puerto Ricans, so we expect the group to increase turnout towards Democrats.

Georgia

Both President and Senate: 

  • We’ve added a factor (“Indian Americans”) to reflect a potential shift in the 1.5% of the population in Georgia that is Indian American, who we expect to swing leftward this year given the racist comments made by Trump ally Laura Loomer and the prospect of voting for Harris as the first Indian American major party nominee for president.

Michigan

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Indian Americans”) to reflect a potential shift in the 1.2% of the population in Michigan that is Indian American, who we expect to swing leftward this year given the racist comments made by Trump ally Laura Loomer and the prospect of voting for Harris as the first Indian American major party nominee for president.
  • Shifting Suburbs: after a reassessment of the suburban volume in Michigan, something which may provide a meaningful boost to Democrats this cycle, we’ve escalated the amount this benefits Democrats. 

Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Fundraising Advantage”) to note Slotkin has held an overwhelming fundraising advantage in the race. This tends to have little effect on the race other than to control the narrative, but may provide a slight boost to her.

Nebraska

Senate:

  • We added a factor (“Fundraising Advantage”) to note Osborn has kept even with Fischer’s fundraising in the race and is primed to have a spending advantage in the final weeks of the campaign. With a savvy advertisement campaign extolling his independent bona fides, it may give him a slight leg up in controlling the narrative of the race.
  • We’ve also added a factor (“Fischer’s Record”) to incorporate Senator Fischer’s occasional resistance to labor causes and pro-business bona fides. This, combined with Osborn’s reticence to latch onto the Democratic brand may give Fischer-skeptical conservative and blue collar voters the liberty to look elsewhere.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District

President:

  • We had a statewide factor concerning Nebraska Republicans’ efforts to eliminate the individual electoral votes awarded by congressional district, and how this may upset voters in Nebraska’s second, but we didn’t actually apply this factor to the second directly. We’ve now added a factor (“Electoral College Reform”) in the district itself, and weighed it by three times as much as it was weighed statewide, to correct this.

New Jersey

Both President and Senate: 

  • We’ve added a factor (“Puerto Ricans”) to reflect that 5% of the state’s population is of Puerto Rican ancestry, a group of voters who may negatively recall Trump’s frosty relationship and hostile attitude towards the commonwealth. This is likely further escalated by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally which secured headlines for containing racist rhetoric at the expense of Puerto Ricans, so we expect the group to increase turnout towards Democrats.

New York

Both President and Senate: 

  • We’ve added a factor (“Puerto Ricans”) to reflect that 5% of the state’s population is of Puerto Rican ancestry, a group of voters who may negatively recall Trump’s frosty relationship and hostile attitude towards the commonwealth. This is likely further escalated by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally which secured headlines for containing racist rhetoric at the expense of Puerto Ricans, so we expect the group to increase turnout towards Democrats.

North Carolina

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Indian Americans”) to reflect a potential shift in the 1.2% of the population in North Carolina that is Indian American, who we expect to swing leftward this year given the racist comments made by Trump ally Laura Loomer and the prospect of voting for Harris as the first Indian American major party nominee for president.
  • RFK Jr.-free Ballot: we’ve removed this factor, as it’s faded into the background, and we don’t see a strong case for disparate treatment of partisan lean adjustments given the placement (or non-placement) of third party candidates on the ballot that’s not being adequately captured by independents or other factors.

Ohio

Both President and Senate:

  • Cleveland Guardians: we’re not changing it, but we are updating the language to reflect the Guardians’ loss to the Yankees in the American League Championship Series…

Pennsylvania

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Indian Americans”) to reflect a potential shift in the 1.2% of the population in Pennsylvania that is Indian American, who we expect to swing leftward this year given the racist comments made by Trump ally Laura Loomer and the prospect of voting for Harris as the first Indian American major party nominee for president.
  • We’ve added a factor (“Shifting Suburbs”) to Pennsylvania. Philadelphia suburbs, such as those in Chester, Delaware, and Bucks counties, have shifted leftward in the Trump era – a trend that seems likely to continue given the Republican Party’s renomination of Donald Trump and moderate Republicans’ dissatisfaction with the party. This could hand Democrats a sizable boost from the high-turnout residents in these areas, which make up much of the Pennsylvania electorate.
  • And we’ve added a factor (“Puerto Ricans”) to reflect that 3.6% of the state’s population is of Puerto Rican ancestry, a group of voters who may negatively recall Trump’s frosty relationship and hostile attitude towards the commonwealth. This is likely further escalated by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally which secured headlines for containing racist rhetoric at the expense of Puerto Ricans, so we expect the group to increase turnout towards Democrats.