After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of the Senate and making the presidential race a toss-up in our model. 

With just one day until the election, we have some final factor updates to touch up our model with before we test it against the actual results come Election Day (and as the results are tallied in the coming week or two). Some of these final additions reflect new information, others are minor corrections, and some are just things we’ve taken some time to work on and implement. By and large, they will not have a significant impact on the bottom line – though they marginally help Harris a bit more in Georgia and Iowa, and the standardization of a new Seniors factor across all states rather than just a select few does give Democrats a bump.

Feel free to send us any suggestions, thoughts, or note any errors; you can reach us at contact@thepostrider.com. Here’s what we’ve adjusted and added:

National Factors

  • We are adding a national factor we’ve wanted to add for a while: Seniors. Though we selectively implemented this factor as a local factor in states like Florida and Maine to reflect the fact that a high percentage of those states’ population is older than 70, there was really no reason not to implement it nationally, proportionally affecting states based on the percentage of their population falling in that same age bracket. We expect this population to shift Democratic, as Harris seems to have inherited Biden’s improvements among these voters, a shift that is likely to have a meaningful impact on the election nationally. Accordingly, this factor now also applies to the Senate races in each state.
  • We’ve also nudged up the Democratic lean of College Educated voters to D+6, as Harris is getting a clear boost from this group of high-turnout, high-engagement, and high-propensity voters.

Georgia

President:

Iowa

President:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Pro-Choice Momentum”) to accommodate data gathered by Split Ticket showing that 4% more Iowans support abortion being legal in all or most cases than support banning it. However, Iowa law currently bans abortions at six weeks. Iowans, particularly women, may shift in Harris and other Democrats’ favor in an effort to expand abortion rights.
  • We’ve also pulled back the Rural Dominance factor, cutting it in half; this is in line with some improved polls for Democrats in the Great Plains.

Michigan

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Pro-Choice Momentum”) to accommodate data gathered by Split Ticket showing that 11% more Michiganders support abortion being legal in all or most cases than support banning it, a higher level of support than Iowa or Texas. Michigan doesn’t have an abortion referendum in 2024, but Democrats may benefit from motivated pro-choice voters, who voted to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution back in 2022; given the right is protected in the state, we expect the Democratic momentum on this issue to be more muted, only mildly boosting Harris and Slotkin.

North Carolina

President:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Pro-Choice Momentum”) to accommodate data gathered by Split Ticket showing that 4% more North Carolinians support abortion being legal in all or most cases than support banning it. However, North Carolina law currently bans abortions after twelve weeks. North Carolinians, particularly women, may shift in Harris and other Democrats’ favor in an effort to expand abortion rights.
  • North Carolina’s Rural Red Wall appears to be holding up, so we’ve increased the strength of this factor to R+1.

Texas

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Shifting Suburbs”) to note that although Texas’ suburbs have not swung as far to the left as those in similar states, Joe Biden still managed to make improvements in counties such as Collin, Denton, Hays, and Williamson in 2020. If this trend continues, it should provide Democrats with a boost.