When we made our initial rating for Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman had yet to trail in a poll and the NRSC was pulling ad buys out of the Philadelphia market, two sure signs that things were looking bad for Republican Mehmet Oz. But since then, Oz has his first polling lead (albeit from some Republican leaning firms) and Fetterman has yet to pull away from Oz in the way that his gubernatorial counterpart, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, has, giving Republicans a newfound sense of hope in the Keystone State.

The big turning point in this race may have been the debate between Oz and Fetterman that took place on October 25th. Fetterman, still recovering from a stroke and relying on closed captioning to understand the moderators’ questions, gave a series of underwhelming, occasionally incoherent answers, presenting Oz, who used to talk on television for a living, with an opportunity to pounce. But he may have pounced too much. In addition to taking a smarmy tone regarding Fetterman’s condition, Oz – who, despite his support for Donald Trump, is relatively moderate for a Republican Senate candidate – said that he believes decisions around abortion should be made by “women, doctors, [and] local political leaders,” bringing the spotlight back to the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, the backlash to which buoyed Democrats to a handful of special election wins this summer.

Oz and Fetterman’s muddled debated performances are now reflected in their muddled polling. In addition to the roughly 48% ceiling Fetterman seems to be hitting in head-to-head polling against Oz in recent polls, he still can’t crack 50% when it comes to favorability. But he’s in much better shape in that regard than Oz, who can’t even crack 40% in favorability and can’t dig himself out of the 50% unfavorable hole. So, yes, while Oz seems to have a better chance of winning now than he did a few months ago, his support doesn’t exactly seem enthusiastic. But no matter how reluctant some Pennsylvanians may be to vote for Oz, they seem more open to doing so than they did over the summer, shifting the momentum of the race sufficiently enough that we can no longer say that Fetterman is favored. Mix the tight polls with a stark urban/rural divide and some purple suburbs, and you’ve got yourself a true toss-up.

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology