In our initial rating of the Badger State’s Senate race back in September, we gave Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes the benefit of the doubt because the polls, which he often led in, pointed to a close race. But in the weeks since, incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson has steadily pulled away. Given Wisconsin’s polling errors in 2020 and signs that a similar trend is beginning to manifest again this cycle, it’s hard to claim that Johnson does not have an overwhelming advantage in this race and we are moving this race from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.

We cautioned that Ron Johnson’s extreme rhetoric and conspiratorial views have become emblematic of Wisconsin’s larger trend towards the right over the last ten years, but the real kicker is that the electorate seeks antagonism in this deeply polarized state. Two weeks ago, when Barnes and Johnson took to the debate stage for the final time, the candidates hurled extreme rhetoric back and forth. Even when asked to say something he liked about his opponent, Johnson retorted that Barnes clearly “had loving parents” before adding, “what puzzles me about that is with that upbringing, why has he turned against America?”

Admittedly, in the initial rating, we spent much more time exploring Johnson’s history, unpacking his conspiratorial leanings, and contrasting him to Wisconsin’s own political history in the 21st century. This foreshadowed the rating we’re making now and debated making at the time: it’s not so much that the situation on the ground changed for Barnes, or that Johnson has picked up steam, it’s that people are paying attention and the situation has not changed. Wisconsin is a Republican-leaning state that Democrats still need wind at their back to win in a good year. 

Take note of Democrats’ last two major statewide victories against an incumbent in the state. In 2018, despite an 8.6% advantage nationally, Democrats defeated incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker by only 1%. And in 2020, despite a 4.5% Democratic advantage nationally, Joe Biden only carried the state by 0.6%. Given the national generic ballot favors Republicans by about 0.6% now, this hints that Johnson can expect to carry America’s Dairyland by about 4% to 5%.

Moving the Wisconsin Senate race to Likely Republican is not cataclysmic for Democratic odds. This was always going to be a tough race for the Democrats to win and we were pretty split when it came to calling it a “Lean” race to begin with. But it bodes poorly for Democratic chances that the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the Senate is likely to retain his seat, while Democratic incumbents in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are fighting for their lives.

Democratic odds of retaining their narrow Senate majority now involve playing way more defense than they wanted to, or praying for a shocking polling error in some races quickly slipping out of reach. Either way, a Republican victory in Wisconsin’s Senate race is likely.

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology