This fictional (and, I hope, relatively believable!) exploration of the world in which Mitt Romney won the 2012 presidential election was inspired by many things, including Romney: A Reckoning by McKay Coppins, our own Running Mates podcast, and a deep appreciation for the retiring Senator Romney’s life and career. Please enjoy Part II.

Part I (2011-2012) | Part II (2013-2014) | Part III (2015-2016) | Part IV (2017-2021)

President Romney was frustrated. 2014 was not going as smooth as his first year in office. Obstruction, consternation, mistrust, cabin fever – whatever it was, the 45th president had a bad feeling about the midterms.

Though Romney’s coattails, not to mention the overwhelming majority already in place, had kept the House in Republican hands by the time he was inaugurated, the party had lost a seat in the Senate, managing only to knock off Democrat Jon Tester in Montana. This had forced President Romney to work with the 54-46 Democratic Senate majority early on. Deep down, he wasn’t too frustrated by it – Democratic control over confirmations gave Romney an out with the base when it came to nominating secretaries he felt were more sensible and capable to begin with. 

He kept his promise to Jon Huntsman, of course – who sailed through as secretary of State. A moderate, just like Defense Secretary John McCain, Attorney General Brian Sandoval, Transportation Secretary Ed Rendell, and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (in a gesture of goodwill, Romney kept Vilsack – who was Obama’s Agriculture secretary – on; he felt little need to justify it to himself, “Who doesn’t like Tom Vilsack?!”), all of whom easily made it through their confirmation votes. Though he was peeved that Romney opted for Huntsman at State, Robert Zoellick consoled himself knowing that Treasury secretary was a respectable landing place for a former World Bank head.

By far the most difficult confirmation battle ended up being Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, who Romney tapped to run the Department of Labor. Romney hoped that by choosing someone who was at least a Democrat in name, the Senate would go for it, but Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren ended up putting up quite a confirmation fight from the left while Texas’ Ted Cruz, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, and South Carolina’s Jim DeMint (who was privately banking on Obama’s reelection so that he could take a job as president of the Heritage Foundation) frustrated the nomination from the right (Mitt collectively referred to the six of them as “the caucus of no,” a joke he alone thought was worth more than a polite chuckle). Romney could usually talk to Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown to make some inroads with them (he was an honorary member of the “caucus of no”) as Romney felt he was the only one of the seven able to coherently articulate his position, but Brown wouldn’t budge on Schultz, forcing Romney to rely on a smattering of oddball Democrats and Republican senators early on in his presidency. “I should thank them,” Romney would often remark, as were it not for their obstinance, he probably wouldn’t have built the personal relationships with Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, Maine’s Susan Collins, Delaware’s Chris Coons, Colorado’s Mark Udall, and – of all people – Majority Leader Harry Reid, that he’d come to rely on in the years ahead.

Former Virginia GOP Chair Ed Gillespie was a tougher sell, forcing Romney to take him on as a senior advisor. But, with him and Mike Leavitt (a fellow Mormon, and someone Romney deeply trusted), his diligent chief of staff, rounding out the White House, the administration had been relatively stable and scandal free since the inauguration. With the economy still struggling to gain the momentum the country wanted in the long aftermath of the Great Recession, Romney managed to convince the Democratic leadership to go along with the Republican House’s plan to cut taxes and reform the corporate tax rate. Democrats felt the heat on Romney’s signature tax reform, capping the state and local tax deduction, when he began to make the case in poorer congressional districts represented by Democrats as opposed to the wealthy suburbs where Romney, where Romney’s base lived and where he felt more comfortable.  Reeling from the exposure of a bit of hypocrisy on their end, a last minute push by Reid and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin to increase infrastructure spending by $300 billion made its way into the bill. But, what with the economy still needing some juice, and all the late night sessions spent getting the Democrats on board to begin with, Romney was unwilling to veto the bill by the time it reached his desk. Besides, the president’s legislative agenda seemed stuck, and he needed to take a win where he could.

Over 2013 and 2014, he managed to get Democrats and Republicans to come together to make some perfecting changes to the Affordable Care Act, rebranding it on the trail as Romneycare. The adjustments weren’t as dramatic as he’d imagined, or campaigned on, but Democrats refused to even consider his proposals to reduce the size of the government, so technical adjustments would have to do. Romney’s frugality instead became something of a joke on Capitol Hill. At least until he had the Detroit bankruptcy to add to his routine fiscal talking points – an poorly run Democratic city was a concept that resonated more with Americans than the obscure budget negotiations. Romney used the bankruptcy to drive home his message regarding the impending debt ceiling and government shutdown deadlines, successfully reaching an agreement with Democrats that just technically cut spending (“this way we can both call it a win,” he told Harry Reid after a particularly fraught stretch of time in their relationship).

The nation’s economic indicators continued improving apace, with the stock market soaring past its pre-crisis record early into the term, and the unemployment rate continuing to decline over the years. And from a regulatory standpoint, President Romney greenlit the Keystone XL Pipeline and expanded offshore drilling leases. Sure, when the Colorado floods hit in September, some Democrats attempted to pin climate change on his administration, but Romney’s compassionate approach to the local communities earned him tempered acclaim.

Romney found that he was more suited to crisis response than to the day-to-day legislating he ostensibly had more control in anyway. 85 days into his term, Romney’s deep ties to Boston earned him national commendation when he delivered a remorseful address in the wake of the marathon bombing. His first summer in office, he was able to blame his predecessor for the fallout from Ed Snowden’s revelations of NSA’s private data collection under the PRISM program. With Democrats suddenly united on the issue, and Rand Paul willing to work the issue (“that’ll be the day…” Romney remembers telling his staff when the Udall-Paul Section 702 Reform Act was first introduced in the Senate). Romney felt solace he hadn’t committed troops to any new foreign wars (he mothballed any plans to intervene in Syria, against the “red line” set by his predecessor) but felt a bit powerless by the time 2014 reared its ugly head.

Despite a relatively drama-free first year, Romney soon found himself distracted by crisis after crisis. Right off the bat, Russia’s invasion of Crimea forced widespread condemnation and moderate sanctions from the international community, something Romney happily joined. Conflict in the Gaza Strip, the rise of ISIS, and an Ebola outbreak in West Africa all consumed briefings and precious time. It was at some point that spring that Romney realized how powerless his position was. “I haven’t done anything in weeks that any other president wouldn’t have also done,” he recalled lamenting one night to his wife, Ann. 

By the time his focus turned in full to the midterms, his approval rating had settled around 48%. The protests in Ferguson, Missouri over the police shooting of Michael Brown hadn’t helped. Romney never thought of himself as “tough on crime” and tried to preach the compassionate conservatism and importance of every human life, just as his dad did, but the perception remained that he hadn’t done enough for Black Americans. By November 4, 2014, only 46% of Americans approved of his job as president.

“We’ll lose seats… but we’ll keep the House,” Gillespie assured him, “but we should be prepared to lose even more seats in the Senate.” Romney was well aware of the math. With Democrats holding 54 seats, they already had the edge – and there was a lot of ground in play this year. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell had convinced Romney that an aggressive play in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina would be necessary. Personally, Romney liked the Democratic incumbents in the four states (though he didn’t really know Iowa’s Tom Harkin, personally he thought he was going to retire this cycle before Harkin declared he’d run for a sixth term) – but McConnell was right. If Republicans didn’t at least try to play some offense, Democrats could get a supermajority outright.

It wasn’t even a bad map for them. Democrats held a lot of seats in ruby red states: South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana, and Louisiana. There was a clear path to control if Republicans could knock off several incumbents by keeping Democrats distracted in the Rocky Mountain region. But, Democrats were making a couple aggressive plays in Georgia and Maine, states they figured might be in play given that the midterms usually favor the opposition party. As the results began to trickle in that night, Romney initially felt some resolve. Susan Collins handily won reelection in Maine (“they wasted a lot of money there, didn’t they?” Romney nodded to Gillespie). By 11 PM the results were coming in from all over: Democrats held on in Virginia and North Carolina, but Republicans picked off West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, and Arkansas. With 50 seats, Republicans would reclaim the Senate. Sure, Udall claimed victory in Colorado while Harkin romped in Iowa, and Georgia and Louisiana were too close to call and almost assuredly going to runoffs (Mark Begich, the incumbent Democrat in Alaska, would claim victory at some point a few days later), but the president was heartened nonetheless (“I call this a win win, we won the Senate and kept the Democrats we liked!” he joked to his son).

Maybe the president’s frustrations had reached their end. No, legislating wasn’t going to be much easier with this tight of a Senate majority (“going to be hard to swing both Georgia and Louisiana, Democratic turnout will be up…” he thought to himself), but for the first time in his presidency he’d have complete control of Congress. No more half-hearted threats to investigate his sons by Senate Democrats, no more budget stalemates; no more tangling with Democrats over nominations… he might even get the chance to name someone to the Supreme Court. “Things are looking up,” he intoned, as he turned the television off – though he wished he hadn’t seen the last headline right before bed: “What does this mean for 2016?”

Once again, we hope you enjoyed this fictional exploration of the world in which Mitt Romney won the 2012 presidential election. This is part two of four, follow on to the next part here. 

If you have thoughts, think things would have played out a little (or a lot) differently, or are curious to see an exploration of any other possibilities, please reach out to us, we’d love to hear from you!