Tag: Biden

Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.

The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”

In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close

The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans

The Sunshine State generates a lot of noise, let's distinguish between what matters and what doesn’t.

New Hampshire almost went for Trump in 2016, it swung decisively away from him four years later, where will it fall in 2024?

Republican gains have been offset by an electoral system that favors moderates.

Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?

Well, this is awkward.  We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...

If Biden's stature is so weak that they are actually pointing to a debunked model to justify staying in, it should cause immediate concern.

When in doubt, run to the truth.

Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...

“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?

Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is live! The Postrider‘s Politics Editor and Editor-in-Chief unpack the basics, talk about their philosophy, why they’ve beaten the heavy-hitting models the last three cycles, and have some fun explaining how you can use the map too. ...

We're back and excited to cover this cycle. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!

How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.

President Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union is set to be far more consequential than his 2023 address. The Biden administration, not to mention his campaign, are sure to try and seize on the March 7 speech as a ...

How many times do we have to beat this drum?

If the last few elections paint any picture, it's that a blue Texas is probably a matter of when, not if. Even if takes decades for Democrats to build an advantage in the Lone Star State, a win is likely far sooner than you think.

Climate change is a serious problem deserving of a radical solution. But a lot of people (and the party's own electoral prospects) will be hurt if Democrats throw the baby out with the bathwater and ignore the role fossil fuels play in any transition.

Another presidential cycle is looming. As always, a tiny portion of voters in a select few states will decide the president, and these “swing states” will dominate the candidates’ attention, and therefore national attention as well.  The idea that only ...

State of the Union addresses in the modern era are – at best – relatively innocuous exercises in American political ritual that occasionally generate memeable moments. At worst, they are useless fulfilments of a “from time to time” constitutional requirement ...