Tag: michigan

After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control ...

The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and ...

With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.

In 2022, one of the reasons why the Republicans struggled in so many competitive Senate races is that they simply did not run good candidates. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Blake Masters of Arizona, and Herschel Walker of Georgia all had ...

Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening

Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...

“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?

Though the presidential election will consume much of the attention, control of the Senate is very much at stake, and things don't look good for Democrats.

Another presidential cycle is looming. As always, a tiny portion of voters in a select few states will decide the president, and these “swing states” will dominate the candidates’ attention, and therefore national attention as well.  The idea that only ...

This is the third piece in our series of six features on the Midwestern Democratic decline where we’ll be diving into consequential parts of the Midwest and the prevailing headwinds faced by the Democratic Party in the region. We’ll use ...

This is the first and introductory piece in our series of six features on the Midwestern Democratic decline where we’ll be diving into consequential parts of the Midwest and the prevailing headwinds faced by the Democratic Party in the region. ...