The Postrider’s 96th Academy Awards Preview
Are dynasties good for pro sports? It’s a question that was asked a lot by sports media in the mid-2010s, not only because the Golden State Warriors met the Cleveland Cavaliers in four straight NBA Finals, but because the Warriors won three out of those four matchups. Some suggested that any season that didn’t end with Steph Curry and LeBron James faceoff against each other would be a disappointment – after all, these were the two best players in the league at the time. But to others, it was proof positive that the NBA had become predictable, a problem that was only exacerbated when Kevin Durant joined the Warriors and made them virtually unbeatable.
I bring this up in my annual Oscars column because, for the second straight year, we’re poised to see one film dominate the Academy Awards. Last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s gonzo multiversal epic, picked up seven awards on Oscar night, the most since La La Land in 2017 – and unlike La La Land, it actually won Best Picture. This year, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer – a three-hour, partially black-and-white biopic about the father of the atomic bomb that also happened to be one of the biggest box office hits of 2023 – could repeat that feat. It’s nominated for 13 total awards, four of which (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Editing) it’s virtually guaranteed to win, thanks to equivalent victories at the Golden Globes, SAG awards, PGA awards, BAFTAs, ACE Eddies, and nearly any other precursors ceremony you can think of. And even that’s a conservative estimate – you’ll see in my predictions, but it’s perfectly feasible that Oppenheimer will end up winning eight awards, which would be the most since Slumdog Millionaire won eight back in 2009. In other words, the question of the night won’t be if Oppenheimer will win the most awards – instead, it’ll be how dominant its night ends up being.
And so I ask you, dear reader, as some bloviating ESPN personality may have asked you about the Warriors and the Cavs back in 2017 – is this good for the game?
My perhaps too diplomatic answer is that it seems good for film culture, but bad for the Oscars. Considering how fragmented modern media is, I do in fact think it’s a good thing that we can look at 2022 as the Everything Everywhere All at Once year or 2023 as the Oppenheimer year, especially considering that these are bold, challenging movies. Ideally, we would have a year like 2007 or 1994, which featured a loaded slate of nominees and not only helped facilitate a debate about what should win Best Picture but sparked larger conversations about the artform in general – but, from the perspective of someone who wants the film industry to flourish, feting one major release is better than feting none at all.
Of course, this doesn’t do the Academy Awards broadcast – which is much more endangered than the industry it celebrates – any favors. After Everything Everywhere All at Once scored predicted wins in Best Supporting Actor and Best Support Actress in the opening hour of last year’s broadcast, the rest of the show felt like a mere formality, trudging on to its inevitable conclusion and handing out some technical awards to the mostly forgotten All Quiet on the Western Front along the way. If anyone was looking for evidence that the Oscars’ old-fashioned, TV special format had grown outdated, this was it: a bloated, three and a half hour ceremony rewarding people who had already won a Home Depot’s worth of awards in the preceding months. If legions of online prognosticators were able to accurately predict the results of the show, then why bother watching?
I don’t know that I have a particularly good answer to that question other than that it’s tradition and I like doing it, but that’s the reason I keep watching. I like seeing history unfold before my eyes, and I like seeing movie stars be movie stars. And besides, as with the NBA Finals or any other sporting event, there’s always a chance that someone could pull off an upset – don’t you want to be watching live when the next Moonlight/La La Land mix up happens? I know I do, even if it takes another 89 years to happen.
Will there be any major upsets this year? Check out my predictions below to find out, and watch the 96th Academy Awards this Sunday, March 10, on ABC at 7 PM Eastern, to find out how right or wrong I was:
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
Upset Special: The Zone of Interest
As I outlined above, Oppenheimer has been a runaway train this awards season. That may make for a boring awards season, but it’s not like Christopher Nolan and company didn’t earn it – few films are capable of portraying such a solemn, intellectual subject with a proportionate amount of blockbuster panache like Oppenheimer did. It’s win feels like such a forgone conclusion that discussing an upset pick feels pointless, but if I were forced to do so, I’d go with The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer’s harrowing portrayal of the family of the commandant of Auschwitz, which its filmmakers themselves have argued has taken on a newfound relevance given the war in Gaza. It might also be the most disturbing and abstract movie nominated for Best Picture, which makes it even more likely that the Academy will go with the more classically Hollywood Oppenheimer instead.
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Upset Special: Jonathan Glazer
Like Oppenheimer’s win for Best Picture, Christopher Nolan’s win in this category has been something of a foregone conclusion this awards season, and given the way he was able to wrangle its dense, sprawling storytelling style and his obsession with the ticking clock into such a popular, easy to consume package, it’s well deserved. As in Best Picture, Jonathan Glazer and The Zone of Interest figure to be Nolan’s closest competition, but “close” is a relative term here: if Nolan loses on Sunday, it may very well be the biggest Oscar upset of all time.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy
Upset Special: Paul Giamatti
Cillian Murphy was pegged as the likely winner of this award shortly after Oppenheimer was released, but a surge of wins for Paul Giammati made it seem like we may be entering another ceremony where a beloved but unrewarded veteran was given the nod over a (relatively) younger, more deserving performance. Given Murphy’s wins at BAFTA, SAG, and the Golden Globes, that doesn’t seem quite as likely now, although Giammati pulling the upset is still a distinct possibility. I’d probably give the award to Murphy, personally, but you’d get no argument from me if Giammati won for doing what he does best – playing a prickly curmudgeon with a secret heart of gold.
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone
Upset Special: Emma Stone
The fiercest race in the acting categories, this seemed like Emma Stone’s race to lose as the early reviews of Poor Things were coming in, until Lily Gladstone decided to campaign in Best Actress instead of Best Supporting and started racking up wins at the Golden Globes and among critics’ groups. A win for either actress would be deserved, but my personal preference is Gladstone, partly because Stone already won an Oscar for La La Land back in 2017, but mostly because the warm, subtle, charismatic performance she gives in Killers of the Flower Moon is more appealing to me than Stone’s work in Poor Things, which impressed me more on a technical level as opposed to an emotional one. Given that Gladstone won the SAG award, I’m inclined to believe that the Academy will agree with me, although no one should be surprised if Stone joins the exclusive club of two-time acting Oscar winners.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Faction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling
Upset Special: Ryan Gosling
This is another category that, despite a mini-surge for Charles Melton – who wound up not even being nominated for his work in May December – has felt over for months at this point. Robert Downey Jr. has played the role of America’s sweetheart ever since Iron Man catapulted him to one of the biggest Hollywood comebacks of all time; that he so effectively shaves away his charm and charisma in Oppenheimer to play the scheming, resentful Lewis Strauss makes his performance all the more impressive. I have no problem with Downey finally winning an Oscar, but if I had a vote, I’d give it to Ryan Gosling as Barbie’s tortured, searching Ken, one of the funniest performances of the year and one that sees him repurpose the 21st Century Marlon Brando thing he’s pursued his entire career to brilliant comedic ends.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Upset Special: Emily Blunt
I know I’ve described a lot of these races so far as sure things, but I don’t know that there’s been a more dominant pre-Oscar winning streak than that of Da’Vine Joy Randolph, whose won dozens of well-deserved accolades for her role as a stoically mourning mother in The Holdovers. She’d get my vote, and will probably get most of the Academy’s; if there’s any chance of an upset, it’s probably Emily Blunt being lifted by an unstoppable Oppenheimer sweep. But that’s a big, big if.
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
What Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
What Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Upset Special: The Holdovers
Outside of Best Actress, the screenplay awards figure to be the most competitive “big” categories, with no clear frontrunner emerging after months of precursor ceremonies, which is partially due to the Writers Guild of America awards being delayed until after the Oscars because of their strike. Anatomy of a Fall, which is probably the most schematically impressive script nominated, picked up a BAFTA and a Golden Globe. That Globes win was no small feat given that body’s odd relationship with non-English language films, and I suspect that, given the Academy’s evident love for Anatomy of Fall, it will win an Oscar as well. I can’t argue with that result, but I wouldn’t mind seeing The Holdovers, Anatomy’s closest competition, winning for its script that perfectly balances the bitter and the sweet.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
What Will Win: American Fiction
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
Upset Special: Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer’s dense, layered script may feel like the most obvious and most deserving choice in this category, but my gut says American Fiction, which won the equivalent award at the BAFTAs, will pull off the minor upset. The Academy loves to give this award to the “edgier,” “quirkier” movies, and for many, American Fiction’s sharp take on race relations will fit that bill.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
What WIll Win: The Boy and the Heron
What Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Upset Special: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
For the first time since 2006, we’re poised to see a second-consecutive non-Disney or Pixar film claim the Best Animated Feature Oscar. The only question is which of the two front-runners it’ll be: Sony’s smash hit Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, or Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron. There was a period of time where it seemed likely that Spider-Verse was going to be nominated for Best Picture (in fact, I wrote an entire article whose premise was somewhat dependent on it happening), but The Boy and the Heron’s victory at the Golden Globes presaged a win at the BAFTAs, turning this into a two horse race. My hunch is that the Academy will recognize the latter film given its status as Hayao Miyazaki’s (alleged) swan song and because they’ll have a chance to award Across the Spider-Verse’s sequel, Beyond the Spider-Verse, at some point in the near future, but neither result would surprise me.
Best International Feature Film
Io capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
What Will Win: The Zone of Interest
What Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Upset Special: Society of the Snow
Every year, I make my little joke about how whichever International Feature Film nominee is also nominated for Best Picture will win this award, because to do otherwise would violate the transitive property. But this year, there was a chance for an actual competitive race between France’s Anatomy of a Fall and the United Kingdom’s The Zone of Interest (which is primarily in German), both of which received Best Picture and Best Director nominations. Unfortunately, those dastardly French wouldn’t cooperate – nominees in this category are limited to one per country, and France’s selection committee chose to submit The Taste of Things instead, which, despite its critical acclaim, failed to notch a nomination. So, instead of a legitimately exciting race, we’re left with another layup (albeit for a completely deserving, if not harrowing, movie). Maybe, in another universe, Netflix’s Spanish streaming hit Society of the Snow would pull off the upset, but as we’ve already established, Academy voters aren’t ones to violate basic logical truths.
Best Documentary Film
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
What Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Upset Special: Four Daughters
It feels crass to say, but any “issues”-oriented movie is always a safe bet when it comes to the documentary categories, and 20 Days in Mariupol, which features on the ground reporting from the besieged Ukrainian city, certainly covers an issue that will be at the forefront of voters’ minds. The formally experimental Four Daughters might have an outside chance of winning, but given the ongoing debate in the US about further Ukrainian aid, the recent death of Russian dissident Alexei Nalvany, and, of course, the very real, very brutal war ongoing in Europe, I’d be absolutely shocked if 20 Days in Mariupol didn’t take home the prize.
Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
What Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Upset Special: The Barber of Little Rock
As with the Best Documentary Film category, voters tend to go with the splashy issue movie in the short category, and The ABCs of Book Banning seems to fit that bill. Maybe The Barber of Little Rock, which is about an African American barber who founds a nonprofit community bank, fits that bill too, but book banning certainly grabs more headlines and, presumably, will grab more of the Academy’s attention.
Live Action Short Film
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White, and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
What Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
What Should Win: To be frank, I only saw The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and I didn’t like it that much, so I can’t endorse it in good conscience. Call it my version of an “uncommitted” delegate.
Upset Special: Red, White, and Blue
Usually an after though, the this year’s Live Action Short Film category is relatively star studded: The After stars David Oyelowo as a grief stricken father; Red, White, and Blue features Brittany Snow as waitress searching for a post-Dobbs abortion in Arkansas; while Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar boasts Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, Dev Patel, and Ben Kingsley among its cast. Henry Sugar figures to be the favorite given 1) its big name cast, 2) the auteur behind the camera, and 3) its distribution via Netflix; but if the Dobbs effect could help Democrats stem their losses in the 2022 midterms, surely it can help Red, White, and Blue pull off an upset at the Oscars, too.
Animated Short
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Sense
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
What Will Win: Letter to a Pig
Upset Special: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
In years past, the shorts that Pixar ran in front of their features were considered shoo-ins for this award. But since Pixar stopped making those shorts, the nominees have become incredibly bleak. This year alone, the nods include stories about the Holocaust (Letter to a Pig), death row (Ninety-Five Sense), girlhood in an Islamist state (Our Uniform), childhood sexual abuse (Pachyderme), and World War I (War is Over!). Given the general vibe these days, I think the best bet is to go with Letter to a Pig, although I wouldn’t be shocked if, seeking some respite, the Academy went with the (relatively) lighter War is Over!
Best Original Score
American Fiction – Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
Poor Things – Jerksin Fendrix
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
Upset Special: Killers of the Flower Moon
As with a lot of these “below the line” categories, Oppenheimer figures to be a heavy favorite, and in this instance it’s well deserved – Nolan’s epic is an incredibly tense movie, and so much of that tension is thanks to Ludwig Göransson’s brilliant score. If Göransson faces any real competition, it’s probably the late Robbie Robertson, who provides the Academy with an opportunity to honor not only a great composer but a member of one of the most celebrated bands of all time. But not even Robertson’s legacy will be able to slow down the Oppenheimer band wagon.
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” – from Flamin’ Hot (Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” – from Barbie (Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
“It Never Went Away” – from American Symphony (Music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” – from Killers of the Flower Moon (Music and lyrics by Scott George)
“What Was I Made For?” – from Barbie (music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)
What Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”
What Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”
Upset Special: “I’m Just Ken”
Despite bursting onto the scene as a somewhat transgressive pop star, Billie Eilish has become an awards show darling in recent years, and I fully expect her and her brother Finneas O’Connell to win their second(!) Oscars for “What Was I Made For?,” which already won a Grammy for Song of the Year. As I wrote in my Grammys preview, it’s an undeniably beautiful piece of songwriting, but if I had a vote, I’d cast it for “I’m Just Ken,” which is not only a much funner song, but also the soundtrack for one of the best setpieces of the entire year.
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Upset Special: The Zone of Interest
This might be the most heated race of the below the line awards. Oppenheimer’s overall dominance, and Christopher Nolan’s reputation for making very noisy movies, make it the favorite, but The Zone of Interest, which contrasts the idyllic life of Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss’ family with the screams and gunshots they hear just beyond their garden wall, would literally not work at all if not for Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn’s harrowing sound design, which was still rattling around in my head days after I saw the film. As I said, I think Oppenheimer’s juggernaut status is enough for their sound team to win here, but the award could, and should, go to The Zone of Interest.
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
What Will Win: Poor Things
What Should Win: Napoleon
Upset Special: Barbie
The contest for Best Production Design is poised to be a faceoff between two very different kinds of fantasies – the plastic playland of Barbie, and the uber-sexualized, smog-choked fairy tale of Poor Things. I just feel like there’s too much love for Poor Things for it not to win here, although Greta Gerwig’s insistence that many of Barbie’s otherworldly sets be practical instead of computer generated is sure to please the craftspeople and older voters of the Academy. With all of that said, I’d cast my vote for Napoleon, an uneven movie that nonetheless presented an immersive version of post-Revolution France.
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
Upset Special: Poor Things
This award should be a layup win for Hoyte van Hoytema, who provided alternating moody and epic visuals for Oppenheimer and has made a name for himself over the past ten years through his work not only with Nolan, but also other auteurs like Spike Jonze (Her) and Jordan Peele (Nope). It’s the right choice, although an upset win for Robbie Ryan, whose heavy use of fish-eye lenses and pinhole cameras certainly makes his work in Poor Things standout, would be a fun, albeit unlikely, result.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
What Will Win: Maestro
What Should Win: Maestro
Upset Special: Poor Things
Maestro was a very uneven movie that garnered praise from people who like traditional Oscar biopics and some derision from those who though it was an obvious awards play, but no matter where you came down on the film as whole, there’s one thing about it you can’t deny: they sure did make Bradley Cooper look old! I expect Kazu Hiro and company to ride that fact to an Oscar (Hiro has already won previously for Darkest Hour and Bombshell), but Poor Things’ general popularity and fantastical reimaginings of Victorian hairstyles make it the most likely dark horse pick.
Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
What Will Win: Poor Things
What Should Win: Napoleon
Upset Special: Barbie
Like Production Design, this category figures to be a face-off between Barbie and Poor Things. Both are deserving, but my guess is that the extra level of invention required for Poor Things (Barbie’s costumes are certainly memorable, but they’re also based on doll clothes that have existed for years) will land it the Oscar. Personally, I would cast my vote for Napoleon, which brought the intricate and ridiculous military uniforms of the era to life. Who knew the tsar of Russia wore so many shiny medals!
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
Upset Special: Anatomy of a Fall
This isn’t even a contest: Oppenheimer is an absolute feat of editing, balancing two competing perspectives and multiple complex storylines with a rare sense of grace. If I had to pick an upset, it’d be Anatomy of a Fall, which also plays with perspective in a variety of clever ways, but it’s just not going to happen – even if you think Oppenheimer could some lose in the higher profile categories, it’s the lock to end all locks for this award.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
What Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
What Should Win: The Creator
Upset Special: The Creator
This is the first time in three years no Best Picture nominees were nominated for Best Visual Effects (even though Oppenheimer, which basically recreated a nuclear explosion, probably should have been considered). That has led to a race that is very much up in the air. I have a feeling that this award will go to Godzilla Minus One, the first Godzilla movie to be nominated for any kind of Academy Award and a surprise international hit. I loved that movie and think it’s certainly deserving of this award, but I would cast my own vote for The Creator, a movie whose story and themes left me scratching my head, but whose visual effects seemed unbelievably tactile and made the big-budget Marvel movies of the year look cheap by comparison.