If the race for the presidency and the Senate feels tighter all of a sudden, that’s because it probably is! The generic ballot average has shifted towards Republicans, making matters difficult for both Kamala Harris and Senate Democrats, as many of the key states all lean Republican to begin with.

With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model. Some of them reflect new information, others are minor corrections, and some add a little fun to the model. By and large, they will not have a significant impact on the bottom line, but do help provide some more detail and explain some recent shifts in the polls (looking at you, Nebraska Senate election…). 

Feel free to send us any suggestions, thoughts, or note any errors; you can reach us at contact@thepostrider.com. Here’s what we’ve adjusted and added this week:

Arizona

Both President and Senate:

  • Native Americans: we’ve moved this leftward substantially (though it’s still weighed by the population, so the effect is somewhat limited) as there has been a concerted effort by Democrats to increase turnout from the Navajo.

Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Fundraising Advantage”) concerning the fact that Ruben Gallego is outraising Kari Lake and national Republican groups have moved on from the race. This will only move the needle a bit towards Gallego given the nationalized race, but it is indicative of flagging support for Lake by mainstream Republicans.
  • We’ve also added a factor (“Abortion Stance”) given Lake’s inability to shake her past statements (like calling abortion the “ultimate sin”) and Gallego’s success in making the race substantially focused on abortion. This will move the needle towards Gallego by D+0.7. 
  • And we’ve added a factor (“Lake’s Race Baiting”) as Lake has gone out of her way to make racially coded attacks on Gallego, implying that, because his Mexican-born father is a convicted drug dealer, Gallego is “controlled” by drug cartels. We expect this to nudge the race even more leftward in Gallego’s favor.
  • College Turnout: we’ve applied this factor to the Senate race, as it was only benefiting Harris before. There’s no strong case to exclude it from benefiting Gallego.

Georgia

Presidential:

  • Sagging Democratic Organizing: we’ve moved this rightward just a tad, as the loss of key figures in Democratic organizing in Georgia (like Bishop Reginald Jackson) seems to embody larger issues with the organizing machine that carried Democrats to success both two years and four years ago.
  • Trump-Kemp Feud: we’ve adjusted this factor, reducing the Democratic advantage, as Governor Brian Kemp’s political organization is now supporting Trump and the frayed relationship between the two men has warmed in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. 
  • We’ve added a factor (“Hurricane Helene”) to consider the impact of the hurricane on parts of Georgia which, by and large, favor Trump. We expect a minor dampening of turnout from these areas, which could nudge the state slightly leftward.

Michigan

Presidential:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Electric Vehicles”) regarding Kamala Harris’ past positions on electric vehicles, something the Trump campaign is now hammering her on in the Great Lake State. She has some vulnerability here, so we expect a minute shift towards Republicans in the state’s electorate.

Senate:

  • Carpetbagging(ish) Candidate: we’ve nudged this slightly rightward as news stories have thrust Mike Rogers’ shaky residency status into the spotlight.

Nebraska

Senate:

  • We added a factor (“Veteran Candidate”) to bring Dan Osborn, who is a Navy veteran, in equity with some other veteran candidates; it seems plausible this increases his credibility as an independent candidate.
  • We added a factor (“Blue-Collar Populism”) to capture Osborn’s effective strategy in championing majoritarian and anti-corporate issues while eschewing the Democratic label, which has worked to his favor as polls appear to be tightening in this race.

Nevada

Both President and Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Filipino Voters”) to reflect the particular emphasis by Harris and Democrats to court this bloc of roughly 6% of voters in the Silver State, which should provide both Harris and Jacky Rosen a small boost.

New Jersey

Senate:

  • Democratic Infighting: we’ve updated this factor to note some recent developments in the war of words between Governor Phil Murphy and Democratic Senate candidate Andy Kim. They have failed to reach detente, so we’ve slightly expanded the degree to which this may benefit Republicans.
  • But, we added a factor (“Kim-Bashaw Debate”) regarding Curtis Bashaw’s apparent medical episode during his debate with Andy Kim as this may raise questions about his ability to serve.

North Carolina

Presidential:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Hurricane Helene”) to consider the impact of the hurricane on parts of North Carolina which, by and large, favor Trump. We expect a minor dampening of turnout from these areas, which could nudge the state slightly leftward.

Ohio

Both President and Senate:

  • East Palestine Derailment: we’ve cut back the degree to which this was affecting the race, moving it from R+1 to R+0.5. It’s just not as salient an issue as it once was.
  • Cleveland Guardians: we’re not changing it, but we are updating the language as the Guardians have now made the American League Championship Series!

Texas

Senate:

  • Fundraising Advantage: we’ve adjusted this to be neutral, given Colin Allred now has the resources to match Ted Cruz’s pace – especially as the race has tightened.
  • Candidate Quality: in line with the factor below, Ted Cruz’s more extreme record is now coming back to bite him in earnest as Texas has become more moderate. Consolidation of support behind Allred and poor poll numbers for Cruz reflect this, so we’ve bumped this up a notch.
  • We’ve added a factor (“Consolidated Coalition”) to note that Allred has been endorsed by moderate Republicans like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, reflecting his success in consolidating a coalition of progressives, liberals, and moderate Republicans, all of which give him a leg up.

Wisconsin

Senate:

  • We’ve added a factor (“Union Endorsement”) concerning Tammy Baldwin’s endorsement by labor groups, particularly the Farm Bureau Federation, who has not endorsed a statewide Democrat in Wisconsin for 20 years.