Well, this is awkward. 

We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, and what happens now?

First of all, the model will go on hold. We’ve added text to the top of the model and all complementary analysis articles explaining that they remain a snapshot of the race as of early July. You’re still welcome to play along with the assumptions built in as if Biden were still the Democratic nominee and given the information we had a month ago, but take it with a grain of salt – it no longer accurately depicts how we feel about the state of the race as it is or will be.

We probably will not update these pages or update our revised model until two things happen: it is very clear who the Democratic nominee is (which may not be until the end of August, as the Democratic National Convention runs from August 19-22) and until polling has stabilized both nationally and in key states. We expect some volatility in polls for a little bit here, but we’re optimistic that we’d be able to republish an updated model at some point in early September.

An updated model will likely have a lot of similar components, with some minor tweaks. Other than some obvious language changes, the dynamic of the race may shift – I don’t know that we buy the argument that the demographic shifts will be dramatically different no matter who the Democratic nominee is, but there are some arguments for some changes on the margins which could matter a great deal in a close race. That’s why we want to wait for some stabilized polling.

As for our complementary pieces of analysis, the same thing applies as we consider these “part” of the model. They are no longer an accurate reflection of the race ahead, but we will update them to be whenever the updated model goes up, likely leaving an editor’s note at the bottom to explain what changed. Fortunately, we have not issued ratings for many of the key swing states yet, so there’s still a lot of work we anticipated doing on the races that will receive a lot of focus. It just may take us a bit longer than we expected to get all of our ratings out the door.

In the meantime, we will throw our energy into our Senate model, which will be published in the weeks to come. Will the fluctuation in the presidential election have an impact? Absolutely, but we can adjust for that, and there’s nothing stopping us from rolling out ratings and analysis in those races where candidates are known.

We appreciate your patience and your continued readership, engagement, and support as we – and everyone else – adjust to this tumultuous election cycle. As always, you can reach out to us with any questions or thoughts, and we look forward to continuing to keep you company throughout this race.