Two months and 35 ratings later and they’re all in. Our full ratings for 2022’s Senate election are live and here to light your way through every odd character or peculiar wrinkle in each pivotal (and not-so-pivotal) race this cycle. 

Now that every race is live, let’s talk about the full map. What should you be watching? What are we watching? And what will the Senate look like come January 2023?

The Forecast and the 118th Congress

With every Senate election rated, we’re able to make our current forecast: a 50-50 Senate. That’s right, after hundreds of millions of dollars – potentially even a billion by the time the cycle is done for – the margin in the Senate is estimated to say exactly the same, with Democrats in control by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.

Our forecast, which is based on allocating seats to each party based on whether they are toss-ups (50% chance either party wins), lean (60% chance the favored party wins), likely (85%), or safe (99%), projects that Republicans will win 21.1 seats, one shy of the 22 they need. That’s where we get our 50-50 breakdown.1One wrinkle to note is that we’re currently including the Utah race – which has no Democrat but does have a serious incumbent candidate, Evan McMullin – both against Republicans and for Democrats, despite the fact the independent candidate has said he won’t caucus with either party. This should keep the Republican seat forecast total the same, which is what matters as they’re the party trying to take control of the chamber, but is slightly overinflating the average Democratic seat total. In other words, given the less-than-or-equal-to-15% chance that Utah’s seat goes to McMullin, there’s a decent chance that Democrats control 49 seats, Republicans control 50 seats, and McMullin has one seat. Despite “winning” that race, this isn’t a great position to be in if you’re the Democrats trying to keep control of the chamber. A couple probabilistic notes, while we’re here:

1. There are currently six races listed as “Likely,” which we’ve prescribed an 85% or greater chance to. This means that the chance that none of them go the other way is actually below 50% (put precisely, it’s about 38%). Not terribly strange if none of them go the other way or if at least one does, but just something to remember.
2. That being said, if you look at just four of them (say, just the four “Likely Republican” races), there’s even money none of them flip, so don’t get your hopes up if you’re a Democrat eyeing a blue wave. 
3. If you want to get really snooty, we have 24 races listed as “Safe”, which we give over a 99% chance of going to their respective party. Technically that means there’s about a 20% chance one of those goes the other way… but you’re just going down the rabbit hole at this point. That’s the point of the overall forecast, it averages all of this out to come up with what has historically been a very good reflection of what the Senate breakdown will actually look like come the next Congress.

As we’ve explained before, all ratings are what we call “forward-rated” in that they reflect what we believe is accurate for Election Day. If something changes that we did expect, then our rating today is meant to reflect that.2For example, if we had insider information about a massive scandal about to hit some candidate down the road – we don’t, but if we did – our rating would reflect that. That also means our ratings are less likely to change over time and – at least over the past couple cycles we’ve done this – are more accurate at estimating the Senate breakdown than some other models. So, long story short: don’t be shocked if one of the states “goes the other way” than its rated, do be shocked if several do, and start planning for a 50-50 Senate. 

What You Should Be Watching

The states you should be paying attention to are those that are uniquely competitive, influential, or important – both electorally and for what they mean for the parties and the country in the future. They are unlikely to see ratings changes unless a seismic shift occurs at the local or national level because uncertainty is high. 

As we’ve been shouting for a year: the number one state you should be paying attention to is Nevada. The Silver State’s race and the nuances within it are far more important and competitive than you may think. If incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto can hang on against Adam Laxalt, Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate – and keep the state in their corner – despite Republican advances.

Following that, Georgia is the only other race we have listed as a Toss-Up so, we’d be remiss not to list it next. Unlike Nevada, Georgia’s trends over the past decade have been towards Democrats, but what’s keeping us up at night as we watch these races is that, despite Democrats doing better in many polls over September, they didn’t move the needle much in either Nevada or Georgia. Either polling is very accurate in these states and the races are going to be nail-biters… or polling is off, which should give you pause in two states that are more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Pennsylvania is the easy third race to note here, as it’s probably the one that first jumps to your mind when you think of the highest profile races in 2022. We have Pennsylvania as a Lean Democrat race, giving Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman the slight advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz. But with what is certain to be a high-profile debate between the two in the home stretch of the election, Fetterman’s continued recovery from a stroke, and the fact that he is an avowed progressive testing the waters for that flank of the party in a state Trump ripped away from Democrats in 2016, this is definitely one to stay tuned to.

What We’re Watching

There are a few races we’re keeping a specific eye on because there isn’t enough information, the situation on the ground may have changed since our original rating, or new factors could emerge and complicate the race. Think of these as the races that are the most likely to see a ratings change if something shifts in the future. They’re not races you need to spend a lot of time worrying about as we’ll be here to provide a ratings update if needed, but we share these as an added insight into our thought process.

Wisconsin is a race we’re eyeing a ratings change for, but we just need a little more data. We currently have incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in a Lean Republican race given a stronger-than-expected challenge from Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. But polls are trending towards Johnson, the state has been marching steadily towards that brand of Republicanism, and there is little evidence of any upswell on the ground that Democrats would need to even keep this race particularly competitive. If the situation in Wisconsin stays as it is right now, this will shift to a Likely Republican race.

Slightly more interesting is the race in Utah, where independent Evan McMullin is trying to coalesce the absent Democratic Party, moderate Republicans, and Trump-skeptical Mormons into a near-long-shot challenge to incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee. Nothing’s changed since our initial Likely Republican rating that is worth thinking too much about, but the situation is unusual enough to be volatile.

And yeah, I guess I’ll fess up that we’re also watching Ohio. The polls here continue to show a tight race, despite all of our better wisdom in labeling it a Likely Republican one. But, we’re also weary that another polling miss like the one that hit much of the Midwest in 2016 and 2020 is overinflating Democratic prospects in the Buckeye State (and Wisconsin, for that matter). Things sure look like they did in those two cycles – but Trump was also on the ballot both those times. If this election is more analogous to the last midterm in 2018, polls may be accurately reflecting the tight race. We need more data! 

What You Should Ignore

Finally, these are the Senate races that are getting more attention than they deserve, probably aren’t worth your attention (unless you live in the state, in which case, please pay attention!), and are actively pulling you away from better uses of your time. Think… anyone who told you Amy McGrath had a chance over Mitch McConnell in Kentucky in 2020, or the Trump supporters convinced he had a shot in Colorado that same year. Don’t be like those people!

Most obvious is the Senate race in Washington where some Republicans are particularly bullish about Tiffany Smiley’s chances over incumbent Democrat Patty Murray. Yes, there was that one poll that put Smiley in the margin of error but let’s use this as an opportunity to remind ourselves to never pay attention to a single poll and instead pay attention to polling averages. Murray’s average lead in polls is close to 10%, Washington is a blue state, and even in 2010, a year that leaned heavily in favor of the GOP at the national level (and there were far more polls showing the Republican actually in the lead)… Murray still ended up pulling off a win by 5% of the vote.

Okay, ignore is a strong word for a race we only have listed as a Lean Democrat, but the race in Arizona is worth at least scaling down your attention to for the time being. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is flying high in the polls and, like Georgia, demographics appear to be on Democrats’ side. Also, Republicans picked a deeply flawed candidate in Peter Thiel-backed venture capitalist Blake Masters. So, Lean Democrat feels about right, and it’s hard to see that changing given Arizona is a Republican-leaning state and Kelly is an inoffensive and pragmatic incumbent.

We reserve the right to move any of these abruptly and suddenly into the “What We’re Watching” category, but Colorado, Florida, and North Carolina are big teases this year. The first for Republicans, who will probably lose despite getting lucky (for once this cycle) with a moderate Senate candidate in this Likely Democrat race. And the latter two for Democrats, who have been trying to make inroads in both of the Southern states for several cycles and keep coming up short. Call us when Democrats are consistently leading by several points in most polls in either state and we may be ready to consider moving them to “Lean Republican.”