This fictional (and, I hope, relatively believable!) exploration of the world in which Mitt Romney won the 2012 presidential election was inspired by many things, including Romney: A Reckoning by McKay Coppins, our own Running Mates podcast, and a deep appreciation for the retiring Senator Romney’s life and career. Please enjoy Part IV.

Part I (2011-2012) | Part II (2013-2014) | Part III (2015-2016) | Part IV (2017-2021)

“You’ll feel regret, remorse, like you could do more; that’s natural,” was what former president Clinton told him in a phone call about a week prior, but – to be honest with himself – President Romney felt relieved as he prepared to leave the White House for the last time as president on January 20, 2021.

If his first term felt like a stir-crazy game of whack-a-mole, where the president was constantly responding to crisis after crisis (and elections), while hoping to get some policy done on the side; his second term put that to true shame. The December before his inauguration, when Defense Secretary McCain announced he’d retire with the new term, Romney received more criticism than he’d expected in naming former Missouri Senator Jim Talent as his nominee to replace him. But that was nothing compared to the outrage he faced when he named Betsy DeVos to be the new secretary of Education. Yes, both picks ultimately got through the Republican-controlled Senate, but the level of partisan discourse and distaste had hardened – Democrats were less willing to support the nominations, and the Republican Senate felt more empowered to shove them through. 

But Romney couldn’t solely blame the partisans either. If anything, Americans in general just seemed angrier; if not at him, than with each other (“five-year-itch,” Romney would jest to his sons, whenever they teased him, as if he was the one who caused the dour mood in the country). Everything seemed to enrage Americans – the removal of Confederate monuments; net neutrality; the Dakota Access Pipeline; “gah… even the Oscars,” Romney shook his head after protests in the wake of La La Land’s Best Picture win overconfidently called for “all studios” to “boycott the Oscars.” His own national goodwill coming off of the 2017 inauguration quickly flattened as major hurricanes, mass shootings, and tensions with North Korea consumed the administration’s time. Romney became a bit more bitter, constantly retorting to his advisors that the economy was good – unemployment was low, GDP continued growing, the stock market overperformed expectations – so Romney couldn’t help but wonder what he could do. He approached climate crises and domestic terrorism with his characteristic compassionate conservatism, but there wasn’t the same optimism in the country as he felt even four years ago.  

The 2018 midterm didn’t resolve this tension. After eight years of Republican control of the House of Representatives, and four years of the Senate (and, with President Romney, a federal government trifecta of control over legislation), Romney was wary of the foil his party had become, and of the evaporating potential for bipartisan legislating, as Democrats eyed the opportunity to seize both chambers of Congress. The map was pretty weak for Democrats in the Senate; their best targets were senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona (Romney had lost Nevada twice, but won Arizona twice). Meanwhile, Democrats had to play defense across the map, protecting incumbents like Joe Manchin in ruby red West Virginia and frequent Romney antagonist (and presumed presidential candidate-in-waiting) Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell felt confident about the map, anticipating that Republicans would likely win a seat or two, and committed particular effort into keeping Flake in the running. On election night, Democratic losses in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri, and their failure to pick off Senator Flake in Arizona compounded their difficulties, even as they managed to pick off Heller in Nevada and carry Manchin, Brown, and even Bill Nelson in Florida to victory. Republicans gained two seats in the Senate, 53-47, a much more comprehensive margin than Romney had yet had in the chamber – but Democrats reclaimed the House of Representatives for the first time in eight years. Legislating in his last two years would be difficult.

It was a sign of the times that the easiest times in Congress towards the end of his term were Supreme Court nominations – never an easy task in the modern era to begin with. “If this counts as a break,” Romney once joked, after Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement. He named Kennedy’s former clerk, and now-DC Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the bench, who was swiftly confirmed (43 Democratic Senators still voted against, in a sign of the more polarized times). When liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in early 2019, Romney felt a lump in his throat – McConnell and the Senate Republicans were frothing at the mouth as Democrats insisted the president name a moderate. Romney settled on Edith Brown Clement, a Fifth Circuit judge who had just assumed senior status. This unconventional pick, of an older and pragmatic jurist who was essentially retired, was “fair,” or at least that’s how Romney characterized it in his Rose Garden address naming her to the bench. It didn’t matter, most Democrats balked anyway, but she was nonetheless confirmed. “Don’t they understand this could have been worse for them?” the president reflected late the night of her confirmation, but his early optimism tended to give way to more and more partisanship as 2020 loomed.

By the fall of 2019, Vice President Rob Portman was the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2020. He campaigned on continuing the pragmatic, deficit conscious, compassionate conservatism that the Romney administration epitomized. Reality television star Donald Trump kept hinting he’d enter the race (it was unclear whether he meant the Republican or Democratic primary, but the monthly flirtation never materialized). In terms of those who were actually running, Texas Senator Ted Cruz managed to carry around 20% in most polls, and a longshot run by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie temporarily spooked the Portman campaign into softening his largely technocratic image into a more avuncular posture, but the nomination was a foregone conclusion. “Not since Al Gore in 2000 had a nomination seemed more inevitable,” the president thought to himself, shuddering at the thought of his own path to victory in the 2012 Republican primary.

Things were more interesting in the expanding Democratic field anyway. Though Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden sat out the race, each bruised from a couple presidential primary losses; and the president’s tact in naming his successor as Governor as Massachusetts, Deval Patrick, to his cabinet as Transportation secretary in 2017 forestalled Patrick’s presidential ambitions, the field was substantial. Minnesota senators Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken, as well as Montana Governor Steve Bullock and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, pitched themselves as moderates who could win back swing voters; New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Washington Governor Jay Inslee presented a more progressive, climate change-focused, and social justice accentuating wing of the party; and a couple scattered longshots really struggled to gain much traction. As expected, the frontrunner was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who managed to credibly exemplify the concerns of, and ultimately co-opt, the constituencies many of the other candidates expected to rely on. He wasn’t quite a progressive in the vein of Warren, nor a moderate in the style of Hickenlooper or Bullock, but he could effectively bridge their differences and appear as a pragmatic compromise. Of the field, only Brown, Franken, and Warren managed to carry more than 10% in polls; but Brown’s overwhelming support from union voters managed to undercut a lot of Warren’s more progressive economic messaging, and his hesitancy to wade into the culture wars and Ohio-based “I can win in a red state” message undermined the moderates too. By January he was routinely polling around 50%.

Brown won Iowa and New Hampshire as the plethora of other Democrats split the field. Franken and Warren dropped out after New Hampshire, but Booker vowed to stay in the race until at least South Carolina, hoping the state’s large Black population would bolster his campaign. Brown’s overwhelming victory in Nevada against Booker and Bullock gave him some momentum going into South Carolina, where Brown managed to eke out a narrow win against Booker. Still, a second-place finish kept Booker in the race, as he hoped Super Tuesday’s more diverse electorate could help him make up some ground. 

On the Republican side, Portman had swept all four early contests. After his South Carolina victory President Romney called him to congratulate him, ready to publicly endorse him, noting that “it looks like we’re going to have an Ohio versus Ohio election here!” in a nod to Portman’s home state. If the 2020 election loomed large in the nation’s mind, that would soon be undercut by what Romney had been tracking and quietly preparing for. The first cases of a relatively unstudied respiratory disease originating from China had begun to crop up in the States, and Romney was frustrated by the lack of ability to create a clear action plan. No one could consistently explain how bad this might be, what the proper policy response was, or even what the real volume of infections in the country probably were. By early March, it was out of hand – reports were coming in from everywhere and COVID-19 was a full blown emergency. Romney wished he had communicated earlier what Americans could expect, he felt helpless in asking them to stay indoors, to wear a mask, as he acknowledged the potential economic impacts, and even in assuring the American people that this would be temporary. After he gave his national address, he remembered thinking “thank God someone else is running for president this year.” 

House Speaker Pelosi proved to be an unlikely ally as the Romney administration sought emergency supplemental appropriations to address skyrocketing unemployment claims, to disburse testing and other emergency equipment to states and localities, and to fast-track the development of a vaccine. The most terse moments came when Pelosi and House Democrats sought $2.2 trillion in funds; Romney – ever cognizant of the budgetary impact and deficit, but sensitive to the economic strife felt by millions of Americans – attempted to softly talk the number down. She sternly told him “you will be responsible for the greatest increase in poverty since the Great Depression.” Still, his budget hawks suggested the bill could be lower – they settled around $1.5 trillion, a decision he’d later regret.  

As the pandemic crescendoed, ebbed, and surged, the president found himself overwhelmed with minutiae. Nonetheless, from a response perspective, his staff and administration were capable. “They better be,” he thought. By this point, seven years into the job, the Romney administration was a fine-tuned machine. It rolled out clear guidelines, publicly backed the United States’ preeminent medical experts, and coordinated closely with governors in trying to put out a consistent message. Frustratingly, some of the members of his own party proved to be the most difficult. Republican governors were the first to “reopen” their states, and Republican agitators in the House and Senate occasionally countered the White House’s own messaging. 

By the summer, Romney’s frustration had transformed into agitation. He felt a bit stir-crazy, to be sure, but his temper and irritation from the relentless attacks by those within his own party, and by Democrats who felt he wasn’t doing enough, was enough to leave more than one newspaper asking “Has Romney Had Enough?” When protests in response to the murder of George Floyd swept the nation, something in the president snapped. Maybe it was his own restlessness, his increasingly divorced relationship with many Americans (especially within his own party), or maybe it was just because he found himself thinking of his father a lot, but he decided he wanted to get out: the President traveled to the sight of Floyd’s murder and laid it out plainly: “Black Lives Matter.” When he looked back at it, he saw it as one of the moments he was most proud of in that difficult year. Though he felt he did his best in attempting to manage the coronavirus, and had done right by trying to negotiate in good faith across his presidency, he also believed that justice was overdue and he’d shirked addressing the undeniable inequality in America – the country he was the president of – for too long, “Out of what? Fear?” he thought to himself. That it infuriated Ted Cruz was the cherry on top.

As Romney left the White House on the morning of the 20th, he looked back and smiled. He had cried just moments before as he gave a heartfelt farewell and thank you to his dedicated staff, and felt himself swelling up with tears again. Not of sadness, but of pride – he felt he’d done a pretty good job. 57% of Americans felt so too, “at least according to the pollsters, but we all remember how good they are,” Romney had joked to Ann that final morning in the White House, referring to the significant polling error in the 2020 election between the Brown-Booker and the Portman-Haley tickets.

Before he noticed, it was noon at the Capitol, and Romney watched his presidency come to an end. All he wanted to do while the new president took his oath of office, in his last minute as president, was hold Ann’s hand. As the 46th president addressed the nation for the first time, Romney felt a great weight fall off of his shoulders and a sense of relief. 

There weren’t great crowds in Washington that day – Romney had coordinated with the inaugural committee to provide reasonable accommodations for the still-ongoing pandemic, but there was still some excitement in the air, despite the clouds and cold January air. And Romney reveled in the things he hadn’t thought to even ponder deeply, like the transition of power, a testament to what made America great. As the ceremony ended and Romney began to make his way for a final flight on Air Force One, he felt a hand gently tap him on the shoulder. He turned around and saw President Brown beaming at him, extending his hand. “Thank you, Mitt,” Brown said, his gravelly voice filled with sincerity, “for your service, for your dedication to this country.” Romney smiled and nodded, with a lump in his throat, and firmly shook the president’s hand. “People don’t tell you this enough,” Brown added, “but you truly were the right man at the right time.” 

Once again, we hope you enjoyed this fictional exploration of the world in which Mitt Romney won the 2012 presidential election. This is part four of four, we hope you enjoyed the series! Feel free to jump back to the beginning here.

If you have thoughts, think things would have played out a little (or a lot) differently, or are curious to see an exploration of any other possibilities, please reach out to us, we’d love to hear from you!