Tag: 2024 presidential election

After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control ...

The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and ...

With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.

Now that all of the states are live and the generic ballot has tightened, let's talk about what our model says about the election.

The Garden State could use some more polling!

We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.

We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.

The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”

Could one electoral vote really be that important?

The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.

Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?

Well, this is awkward.  We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...

Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is live! The Postrider‘s Politics Editor and Editor-in-Chief unpack the basics, talk about their philosophy, why they’ve beaten the heavy-hitting models the last three cycles, and have some fun explaining how you can use the map too. ...

A primer on the basics.

How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.

In 2020, Alaska voters approved a ballot initiative which converted their primary system into a nonpartisan blanket primary wherein the four candidates who received the most votes would go to the general election. There, the winner would be determined by ...

We told you before, we'll say it again: Biden was wise to run again.

Earlier this month, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Along with former South Carolina Governor and Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump, he’s probably one of ...