Tag: texas
Our Final Factor Updates
After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control ...
Three Weeks Out: Some Factor Updates
With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.
Texas is Democrats’ Best Shot to Pick Up a Seat This Cycle. No, We’re Not Kidding.
If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...
Texas is Unlikely to Go to Harris—It’s Still Worth Keeping an Eye On
The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans
When Will the Rust Belt’s Electoral Supremacy End?
Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...
Is the Rust Belt Still the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Biden?
“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?
The Senate Races to Watch in 2024
Though the presidential election will consume much of the attention, control of the Senate is very much at stake, and things don't look good for Democrats.
When Will We See a Blue Texas?
If the last few elections paint any picture, it's that a blue Texas is probably a matter of when, not if. Even if takes decades for Democrats to build an advantage in the Lone Star State, a win is likely far sooner than you think.
Who Should Host the Party Conventions in 2028? Here Are Five Novel Ideas
Many of America's great cities have yet to host a major party convention. In this piece, our Politics Editor suggests five cities that meet the political needs of the 21st century.
Democrats Shouldn’t Dismiss a Practical Pro-Oil Pivot
Climate change is a serious problem deserving of a radical solution. But a lot of people (and the party's own electoral prospects) will be hurt if Democrats throw the baby out with the bathwater and ignore the role fossil fuels play in any transition.
There Are Only Six Swing States
Another presidential cycle is looming. As always, a tiny portion of voters in a select few states will decide the president, and these “swing states” will dominate the candidates’ attention, and therefore national attention as well. The idea that only ...
Trump’s Rough Night in Georgia, Runoffs in Texas, and Five Other Primary Night Takeaways
The American political scene has been in primary mode since early March, but, once again, this past Tuesday saw major primary fights in both parties play out in five states. While it’s a folly to try and apply results in ...