October 9, 2020 by Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito

The presidential election may be hoarding the spotlight this cycle, but Americans across 34 states will simultaneously determine the fate of the nation’s highest deliberative body, the Senate. With 35 seats up for election,1Georgia is holding two elections, one for its regular class 2 Senate seat, and the other is a special election for former Senator Johnny Isakson’s seat. He resigned in 2019 and Kelly Loeffler has been serving in his stead. and nearly two-thirds of them controlled by Republicans, the fight for the Senate will be fierce as Democrats seek control of the chamber.

Democrats need to net four — or three, if they also win the White House, as the vice president breaks ties in the Senate — seats to win control of the Senate. They’ve been able to put enough seats in play, considering their intrinsic Senate disadvantage, thanks to strong electoral support at the top of the ticket, and a long tail of races that they have weaker chances to win in more conservative states. 

If you followed our 2018 Senate race ratings and analysis last cycle, or our 2020 presidential ratings we released a few weeks ago, you may be familiar with what we’re doing again this year, but you can read our introduction and methodology here. All of our ratings are approved and determined by both the Editor-in-Chief, Michael Lovito, and yours truly, the State & Science Editor, and we’ll be updating this page with any ratings changes on a race-by-race basis.

With all of this in mind, The Postrider is proud to present its own ratings and analysis for every race in this year’s Senate elections.

Notes:
The incumbent (or the candidate from the incumbent party) is listed on the right.

Angus King and Bernie Sanders are both independents who caucus with the Democrats, so we have included them as “Democrats” for the sake of the victory margin.

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10 Seats Safe Democrat

3 Likely Democrat

3 Lean Democrat

1

4 Lean Republican

5 Likely Republican

9 Seats Safe Republican

Democrats need to win 16 seats to control the Senate, or 15 seats and the vice presidency

Our Projection: Democrats will win 16.6 seats, resulting in a 51-49 Senate split

Click on a state to see the Senate race analysis

The incumbent (or the candidate from the incumbent party) is listed on the right.